12.03.2012
By Simon Miller
Greece is likely to need another bailout despite obtaining a voluntary debt restructure last week according to analysts.
As eurogroup ministers meet to sign off the latest tranche of bailout money, markets started down, reflecting the view that Greece's debt problems still remain and a further bailout more than likely, before slightly recovering this morning.
Finance ministers expect to vote for the €130bn (£108bn) bailout after the sovereign debt restructure went through enabling over €100bn worth of haircuts leaving $3.2bn (£2bn) to be triggered though credit default swaps after the International Swaps and Derivatives Association ruled that a credit event had happened.
Despite the deal, analysts believe this does not solve the problem and may spill over to Portugal.
Micheal Hewson of CMC Markets wrote: "Despite French President Sarkozy’s ridiculous assertion at the weekend that the Greece crisis had been resolved, there is widespread acknowledgment that even after last weeks debt swap that the country will in all probability need a third bailout, after economic data Friday showed that the economy shrank even more than first thought in Q4, by 7.5%."
He added: "In any event EU finance ministers look set to sign off on the €130bn Greek bailout today, despite the fact that the likelihood of a further default remains probable given that the newly issued bonds could still come in at a higher yield than Portugal’s bonds are currently trading."
Chief economist at Bernberg Bank Holger Schmieding commented: "The debt swap deal does not solve the problems of Greece at all. Of course, without it, Greece would be in huge trouble. But Greece's problem is that it has to return to growth. Otherwise, no debt burden is sustainable."
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